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12 of 12 matches with xG: 22 goals from 25.1 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 0–0 Derby | 0.97–0.58 | 44% · 35% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Luton 2–1 Stoke City | 2.13–1.25 | 58% · 21% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Plymouth 1–2 Swansea | 1.40–1.96 | 27% · 22% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Portsmouth 0–0 Norwich | 0.83–0.28 | 47% · 41% · 12% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Blackburn | 0.69–0.68 | 31% · 39% · 30% | Close call, Blackburn won |
| Sunderland 1–1 Bristol City | 1.68–0.48 | 67% · 23% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Sunderland had 67% |
| Leeds 3–1 Middlesbrough | 1.64–0.36 | 70% · 23% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Millwall 0–1 Sheffield Utd | 0.98–1.46 | 25% · 26% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Cardiff 0–2 Preston | 0.60–1.06 | 21% · 33% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Hull City 1–1 Watford | 1.51–1.11 | 46% · 26% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 2–0 Oxford United | 0.68–0.09 | 46% · 49% · 4% | Close call, QPR won |
| West Brom 2–0 Coventry | 0.47–2.19 | 7% · 16% · 77% | Won against the xG: West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.