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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 31.3 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby 4–0 Portsmouth | 1.14–0.60 | 49% · 32% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Bristol City 1–1 QPR | 1.99–0.16 | 82% · 16% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Bristol City had 82% |
| Coventry 2–1 Hull City | 3.18–0.94 | 81% · 12% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Preston 1–1 Leeds | 0.67–2.22 | 10% · 17% · 73% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 73% |
| Blackburn 2–0 Luton | 1.68–0.89 | 56% · 24% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Millwall | 1.05–1.29 | 30% · 28% · 42% | Close call, Middlesbrough won |
| Oxford United 1–3 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.42–1.87 | 29% · 22% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Sheffield Utd 2–0 Plymouth | 1.29–1.08 | 41% · 28% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Stoke City 2–2 Cardiff | 1.79–1.89 | 37% · 22% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Swansea 2–3 Sunderland | 0.90–0.96 | 32% · 32% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Watford 2–1 West Brom | 1.40–1.39 | 38% · 25% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Norwich 1–2 Burnley | 1.07–0.46 | 51% · 34% · 16% | Won against the xG: Burnley |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.