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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 30.6 xG (1.21 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luton 2–1 Derby | 0.94–0.46 | 46% · 37% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Hull City 2–1 Swansea | 1.40–0.84 | 50% · 27% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Portsmouth 4–1 Coventry | 2.06–1.71 | 46% · 21% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Stoke City | 1.74–2.31 | 29% · 20% · 51% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday |
| Burnley 2–1 Watford | 1.21–0.46 | 55% · 31% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Cardiff 0–2 Sheffield Utd | 0.24–0.78 | 11% · 43% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Leeds 4–0 Oxford United | 2.92–0.88 | 79% · 13% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Millwall 1–0 Blackburn | 1.06–0.36 | 53% · 34% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Plymouth 3–3 Middlesbrough | 3.56–1.91 | 69% · 14% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Plymouth had 69% |
| QPR 2–1 Preston | 1.95–0.23 | 79% · 17% · 4% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Sunderland 2–1 Norwich | 0.61–0.62 | 29% · 41% · 30% | Close call, Sunderland won |
| West Brom 2–0 Bristol City | 1.86–0.52 | 70% · 21% · 10% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.