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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 24.2 xG (1.53 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 2–2 Sunderland | 1.89–1.20 | 53% · 22% · 24% | Draw against the xG: Blackburn had 53% |
| Bristol City 1–0 Luton | 0.33–0.57 | 17% · 49% · 34% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Coventry 4–0 Plymouth | 2.00–0.25 | 80% · 17% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Middlesbrough 3–3 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.29–1.80 | 27% · 23% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Norwich 2–1 Millwall | 1.94–0.45 | 73% · 19% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Oxford United 3–2 Cardiff | 1.49–0.52 | 61% · 26% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Preston 1–0 Hull City | 0.66–0.74 | 28% · 38% · 33% | Close call, Preston won |
| Sheffield Utd 0–2 Burnley | 0.73–0.73 | 31% · 37% · 31% | Close call, Burnley won |
| Swansea 3–0 QPR | 1.57–0.43 | 66% · 24% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Watford 2–1 Portsmouth | 1.54–0.22 | 71% · 24% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Derby 2–1 West Brom | 0.84–1.33 | 24% · 28% · 48% | Won against the xG: Derby |
| Stoke City 0–2 Leeds | 0.46–1.18 | 14% · 31% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.