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12 of 12 matches with xG: 22 goals from 29.3 xG (0.75 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich 1–1 QPR | 2.01–0.21 | 81% · 16% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Norwich had 81% |
| Preston 3–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 3.03–1.08 | 76% · 13% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Sheffield Utd 1–1 West Brom | 1.42–0.96 | 48% · 27% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackburn 0–1 Hull City | 1.25–1.33 | 35% · 26% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Bristol City 3–0 Portsmouth | 3.06–0.20 | 92% · 7% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Coventry 0–0 Millwall | 0.41–0.60 | 21% · 46% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oxford United 2–0 Plymouth | 1.08–0.42 | 52% · 34% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Stoke City 1–0 Sunderland | 0.90–2.08 | 15% · 20% · 65% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Swansea 2–1 Luton | 2.49–0.69 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Watford 1–2 Cardiff | 0.66–1.49 | 16% · 26% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Derby 0–1 Leeds | 0.18–2.67 | 1% · 9% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Middlesbrough 0–0 Burnley | 0.41–0.66 | 20% · 44% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.