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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 28.9 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth 2–2 Bristol City | 1.64–1.68 | 38% · 23% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 3–1 Watford | 1.28–0.67 | 51% · 29% · 19% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Millwall 0–1 Oxford United | 0.86–0.65 | 38% · 36% · 26% | Close call, Oxford United won |
| Burnley 0–0 Stoke City | 1.46–1.26 | 42% · 26% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cardiff 1–1 Coventry | 0.69–2.29 | 10% · 17% · 74% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 74% |
| Leeds 1–1 Blackburn | 1.25–0.41 | 58% · 30% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 58% |
| Luton 0–1 Norwich | 0.99–0.44 | 48% · 36% · 16% | Won against the xG: Norwich |
| Portsmouth 4–0 Swansea | 1.70–1.10 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Sheffield Wednesday 4–2 Derby | 2.13–2.56 | 33% · 19% · 48% | Close call, Sheffield Wednesday won |
| West Brom 3–1 Preston | 1.14–0.90 | 41% · 30% · 29% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Hull City 0–1 Middlesbrough | 0.31–0.89 | 12% · 39% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Sunderland 2–1 Sheffield Utd | 0.96–1.61 | 23% · 25% · 53% | Won against the xG: Sunderland |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.