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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 30.4 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 0–1 Burnley | 1.04–0.24 | 56% · 35% · 8% | Won against the xG: Burnley |
| Stoke City 0–0 Plymouth | 0.90–0.08 | 56% · 40% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Stoke City had 56% |
| Swansea 1–1 West Brom | 0.91–1.01 | 32% · 32% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bristol City 1–0 Derby | 1.36–0.37 | 62% · 28% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Hull City 3–3 Leeds | 2.35–2.15 | 44% · 19% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff | 0.77–0.55 | 37% · 39% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Norwich 2–1 Coventry | 2.04–1.14 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Preston 1–1 Oxford United | 2.15–0.42 | 78% · 16% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Preston had 78% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–2 Millwall | 1.92–1.29 | 52% · 22% · 26% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday had 52% |
| Watford 1–2 Sheffield Utd | 1.47–1.15 | 45% · 26% · 30% | Close call, Sheffield Utd won |
| Sunderland 1–0 Portsmouth | 2.30–0.36 | 82% · 14% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| QPR 2–1 Luton | 2.18–2.21 | 40% · 20% · 41% | Close call, QPR won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.