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12 of 12 matches with xG: 19 goals from 26.7 xG (0.71 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 0–0 Sunderland | 0.69–2.85 | 6% · 12% · 82% | Draw against the xG: Sunderland had 82% |
| Cardiff 3–0 Swansea | 0.85–0.36 | 45% · 40% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Millwall 0–1 Hull City | 0.71–0.61 | 33% · 40% · 27% | Close call, Hull City won |
| Plymouth 0–1 QPR | 0.18–2.90 | 1% · 7% · 92% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Coventry 1–0 Bristol City | 0.91–0.76 | 37% · 34% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Derby 0–2 Watford | 1.25–1.82 | 26% · 23% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Luton 0–0 Preston | 0.48–0.01 | 38% · 62% · 1% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oxford United 1–0 Blackburn | 1.30–0.91 | 46% · 28% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Portsmouth 2–1 Middlesbrough | 0.85–1.63 | 19% · 25% · 56% | Won against the xG: Portsmouth |
| Sheffield Utd 2–0 Norwich | 2.09–0.35 | 79% · 16% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| West Brom 1–1 Stoke City | 1.74–1.15 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 51% |
| Leeds 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.91–0.39 | 74% · 19% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.