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12 of 12 matches with xG: 38 goals from 27.8 xG (1.37 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 0–2 Coventry | 0.95–2.73 | 11% · 15% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Derby 0–1 Sunderland | 0.52–0.93 | 20% · 36% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Hull City 1–2 QPR | 1.15–1.34 | 32% · 27% · 41% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Middlesbrough 2–0 West Brom | 0.90–0.98 | 32% · 32% · 36% | Close call, Middlesbrough won |
| Oxford United 3–2 Luton | 0.86–0.69 | 37% · 36% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Swansea 1–2 Sheffield Utd | 1.51–1.77 | 33% · 23% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Watford 1–2 Preston | 0.38–2.44 | 4% · 13% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Millwall 2–2 Cardiff | 0.52–1.11 | 17% · 33% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Cardiff had 50% |
| Leeds 2–0 Norwich | 1.22–0.12 | 66% · 30% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Portsmouth 3–1 Stoke City | 2.02–0.67 | 69% · 20% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–2 Bristol City | 0.97–0.92 | 35% · 32% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 0–5 Burnley | 0.38–2.69 | 3% · 11% · 86% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.