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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 31.0 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland 2–2 Leeds | 1.77–2.18 | 32% · 20% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Burnley 0–0 Preston | 0.48–0.81 | 20% · 39% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Norwich 4–0 Hull City | 3.83–0.99 | 86% · 8% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Portsmouth 1–1 Oxford United | 1.76–1.37 | 47% · 23% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Coventry 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.77–1.55 | 19% · 26% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Derby 2–0 QPR | 1.01–0.52 | 47% · 35% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Plymouth 2–1 Blackburn | 1.52–0.69 | 57% · 26% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Sheffield Utd 2–0 Luton | 1.45–0.36 | 65% · 26% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Swansea 0–0 Stoke City | 2.04–0.87 | 65% · 20% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Swansea had 65% |
| Watford 2–1 Middlesbrough | 1.10–1.86 | 22% · 23% · 55% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| West Brom 0–0 Millwall | 0.73–0.55 | 36% · 40% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bristol City 1–1 Cardiff | 0.99–1.77 | 21% · 23% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Cardiff had 56% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.