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12 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 31.2 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 1–0 Plymouth | 1.38–0.56 | 57% · 28% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Cardiff 1–0 Millwall | 0.81–1.27 | 24% · 29% · 47% | Won against the xG: Cardiff |
| Coventry 3–0 Blackburn | 1.03–0.45 | 49% · 35% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Luton 2–2 Oxford United | 1.24–1.73 | 27% · 24% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 1–3 Hull City | 2.56–1.87 | 53% · 19% · 28% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| Sunderland 2–0 Derby | 1.00–0.95 | 36% · 31% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Norwich 1–1 Leeds | 1.38–1.10 | 43% · 27% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Brom 0–1 Middlesbrough | 1.37–1.32 | 38% · 26% · 36% | Close call, Middlesbrough won |
| Sheffield Utd 1–0 Swansea | 1.23–0.94 | 43% · 29% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Preston 3–0 Watford | 3.04–0.93 | 79% · 12% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Stoke City 6–1 Portsmouth | 2.52–1.29 | 64% · 18% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Bristol City 0–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.88–0.37 | 46% · 39% · 15% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.