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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 32.1 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth 3–1 Luton | 1.36–1.07 | 43% · 27% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Blackburn 2–0 QPR | 2.19–0.55 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Derby 2–3 Norwich | 1.42–1.96 | 28% · 22% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Sheffield Wednesday 3–2 West Brom | 1.19–1.02 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Hull City 4–1 Cardiff | 2.26–1.87 | 47% · 20% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Leeds 3–0 Coventry | 1.50–0.28 | 69% · 25% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Middlesbrough 2–0 Stoke City | 2.45–0.76 | 75% · 16% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Millwall 3–1 Preston | 2.58–0.94 | 73% · 16% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Oxford United 0–0 Burnley | 0.08–1.83 | 1% · 17% · 82% | Draw against the xG: Burnley had 82% |
| Portsmouth 0–0 Sheffield Utd | 0.50–0.55 | 26% · 45% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Watford 2–1 Sunderland | 1.89–1.01 | 58% · 22% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Swansea 1–1 Bristol City | 1.03–1.83 | 21% · 23% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Bristol City had 56% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.