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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 32.0 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City 1–3 Hull City | 0.90–1.43 | 24% · 27% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Norwich 4–1 Watford | 2.72–1.67 | 60% · 18% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| QPR 1–1 Millwall | 0.85–1.87 | 17% · 22% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Millwall had 61% |
| Sunderland 1–0 Middlesbrough | 1.17–1.28 | 34% · 27% · 39% | Close call, Sunderland won |
| Bristol City 2–1 Oxford United | 2.32–1.74 | 51% · 20% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Burnley 2–1 Portsmouth | 1.04–1.38 | 28% · 27% · 45% | Won against the xG: Burnley |
| Cardiff 0–2 Leeds | 0.12–2.74 | 1% · 8% · 91% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Coventry 1–2 Swansea | 1.65–0.73 | 59% · 24% · 16% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
| Luton 2–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.12–0.87 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Sheffield Utd 1–0 Derby | 1.10–0.05 | 65% · 33% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| West Brom 1–0 Plymouth | 2.33–0.78 | 72% · 17% · 11% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Preston 0–0 Blackburn | 0.36–0.80 | 16% · 41% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.