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12 of 12 matches with xG: 26 goals from 30.2 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham 1–1 Ipswich | 1.13–1.26 | 33% · 28% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Coventry 0–0 Hull City | 1.43–0.43 | 62% · 27% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 62% |
| Southampton 2–1 Wrexham | 4.14–1.88 | 76% · 11% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Charlton 1–0 Watford | 1.16–0.72 | 46% · 31% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Charlton |
| West Brom 1–0 Blackburn | 1.19–0.71 | 47% · 31% · 22% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Stoke City 3–1 Derby | 1.09–0.39 | 53% · 34% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Swansea | 0.35–0.10 | 27% · 66% · 7% | Close call, Middlesbrough won |
| QPR 1–1 Preston | 0.94–0.84 | 36% · 33% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oxford United 0–1 Portsmouth | 1.36–1.21 | 40% · 26% · 33% | Close call, Portsmouth won |
| Norwich 1–2 Millwall | 1.04–2.09 | 18% · 20% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Sheffield Utd 1–4 Bristol City | 2.30–1.30 | 60% · 19% · 21% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Leicester 2–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.54–0.62 | 79% · 14% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.