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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 27.4 xG (1.28 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.50–0.10 | 74% · 23% · 2% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Birmingham 3–2 Coventry | 1.27–1.33 | 35% · 26% · 38% | Close call, Birmingham won |
| Derby 1–2 Wrexham | 1.35–1.00 | 45% · 27% · 28% | Won against the xG: Wrexham |
| Blackburn 2–2 Charlton | 0.85–1.47 | 22% · 27% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Charlton had 52% |
| Middlesbrough 4–0 Southampton | 2.27–1.12 | 63% · 19% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Bristol City 0–2 Preston | 0.42–1.08 | 14% · 34% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Norwich 0–2 Stoke City | 0.54–2.06 | 9% · 18% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Millwall 2–1 Swansea | 1.93–1.05 | 58% · 22% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Leicester 2–1 West Brom | 0.81–1.09 | 27% · 31% · 42% | Close call, Leicester won |
| Hull City 0–0 Watford | 0.30–0.93 | 12% · 38% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 50% |
| Sheffield Utd 3–1 Oxford United | 1.00–1.06 | 33% · 30% · 36% | Close call, Sheffield Utd won |
| Portsmouth 2–0 Ipswich | 1.78–1.07 | 54% · 23% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.