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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 27.8 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 0–2 Wrexham | 0.66–0.67 | 30% · 40% · 31% | Close call, Wrexham won |
| Bristol City 5–0 Portsmouth | 1.51–0.42 | 65% · 25% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Swansea 1–0 West Brom | 0.67–1.06 | 23% · 33% · 44% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
| Preston 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.91–0.21 | 79% · 17% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Watford 3–0 Birmingham | 1.56–0.40 | 66% · 24% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Hull City 0–1 Stoke City | 1.31–1.65 | 30% · 24% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| QPR 1–2 Norwich | 0.72–1.90 | 13% · 21% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough | 1.22–1.32 | 34% · 27% · 39% | Close call, Derby won |
| Southampton 0–0 Millwall | 0.96–1.49 | 24% · 26% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ipswich 2–1 Oxford United | 1.43–1.08 | 45% · 26% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Charlton 1–1 Coventry | 1.46–1.55 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Utd 3–1 Leicester | 2.40–0.21 | 86% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.