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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 23.6 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry 0–2 Ipswich | 0.80–1.14 | 26% · 31% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 Blackburn | 0.47–0.81 | 20% · 39% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Brom 2–1 QPR | 1.48–0.14 | 73% · 24% · 3% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Stoke City 1–2 Sheffield Utd | 0.59–2.50 | 7% · 14% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Middlesbrough 0–1 Hull City | 1.47–0.29 | 68% · 25% · 7% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| Oxford United 0–1 Swansea | 0.48–0.79 | 21% · 40% · 40% | Close call, Swansea won |
| Millwall 2–1 Bristol City | 0.63–0.96 | 23% · 35% · 42% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Leicester 2–1 Derby | 0.68–0.69 | 30% · 39% · 31% | Close call, Leicester won |
| Wrexham 2–1 Preston | 2.53–1.07 | 69% · 17% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| Portsmouth 2–1 Charlton | 0.74–1.01 | 26% · 33% · 41% | Close call, Portsmouth won |
| Norwich 0–1 Watford | 0.95–0.36 | 49% · 37% · 14% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Birmingham 1–1 Southampton | 1.70–1.36 | 46% · 24% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.