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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 27.3 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham 1–1 Derby | 2.98–0.79 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Birmingham had 81% |
| Millwall 0–0 Ipswich | 0.36–0.81 | 15% · 41% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Norwich 1–0 Charlton | 1.16–0.31 | 58% · 32% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Portsmouth 1–1 QPR | 0.53–0.47 | 29% · 47% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Coventry 1–0 Swansea | 1.30–1.22 | 38% · 27% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Leicester 1–2 Watford | 0.43–1.40 | 11% · 27% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Oxford United 2–1 Southampton | 0.91–1.44 | 24% · 27% · 49% | Won against the xG: Oxford United |
| Stoke City 0–0 Preston | 1.06–0.59 | 47% · 33% · 20% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 0–0 Blackburn | 0.75–1.23 | 23% · 30% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Brom 1–2 Bristol City | 1.59–0.74 | 58% · 25% · 17% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–2 Hull City | 1.56–1.52 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wrexham 5–3 Sheffield Utd | 2.29–1.89 | 48% · 20% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.