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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 28.5 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea 2–1 Wrexham | 2.04–0.36 | 77% · 17% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Southampton 1–1 Coventry | 1.32–0.48 | 58% · 29% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 58% |
| Blackburn 2–0 Millwall | 2.35–0.59 | 77% · 16% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Preston 1–1 Norwich | 1.14–0.40 | 55% · 32% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Preston had 55% |
| Charlton 1–0 Oxford United | 0.77–0.61 | 36% · 38% · 26% | Close call, Charlton won |
| Ipswich 3–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.92–0.80 | 80% · 12% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Watford 1–0 Stoke City | 1.22–0.52 | 54% · 31% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Hull City 1–0 West Brom | 1.29–1.34 | 36% · 26% · 38% | Close call, Hull City won |
| Derby 1–1 Portsmouth | 0.79–0.15 | 49% · 44% · 7% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 4–1 Leicester | 1.77–1.14 | 52% · 23% · 24% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Sheffield Utd 3–0 Birmingham | 2.80–0.65 | 82% · 12% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Bristol City 2–0 Middlesbrough | 0.90–2.18 | 14% · 19% · 67% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.