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12 of 12 matches with xG: 36 goals from 31.6 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom 2–0 Sheffield Utd | 2.31–1.15 | 63% · 19% · 18% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Norwich 2–1 Southampton | 1.33–2.12 | 24% · 21% · 56% | Won against the xG: Norwich |
| Oxford United 1–2 Preston | 1.57–0.61 | 61% · 25% · 14% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Stoke City 2–1 Swansea | 0.46–1.25 | 14% · 30% · 56% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Birmingham 1–1 Charlton | 1.24–1.12 | 39% · 28% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Portsmouth 2–1 Blackburn | 1.77–0.72 | 63% · 23% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Coventry 1–0 Bristol City | 2.11–1.34 | 55% · 21% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Leicester 3–1 Ipswich | 0.97–1.28 | 28% · 28% · 44% | Won against the xG: Leicester |
| Millwall 1–3 Hull City | 0.82–2.03 | 14% · 20% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Wrexham 2–2 Watford | 1.20–0.83 | 45% · 30% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 3–1 QPR | 2.29–1.30 | 60% · 20% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–3 Derby | 0.18–1.64 | 4% · 21% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.