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12 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 30.1 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston 1–1 Coventry | 0.29–1.95 | 5% · 18% · 78% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 78% |
| Sheffield Utd 1–1 Norwich | 2.90–1.26 | 71% · 15% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Utd had 71% |
| Blackburn 1–1 Oxford United | 2.28–0.29 | 83% · 14% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Blackburn had 83% |
| Watford 1–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.78–0.48 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 85% |
| Southampton 3–2 West Brom | 0.97–1.34 | 27% · 28% · 45% | Won against the xG: Southampton |
| Charlton 1–2 Middlesbrough | 0.26–0.72 | 12% · 45% · 43% | Close call, Middlesbrough won |
| Swansea 1–0 Portsmouth | 0.82–0.80 | 33% · 35% · 32% | Close call, Swansea won |
| QPR 2–1 Birmingham | 1.51–0.31 | 68% · 25% · 7% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Ipswich 1–0 Stoke City | 0.93–0.33 | 49% · 38% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Derby 1–1 Millwall | 1.20–0.91 | 43% · 29% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bristol City 2–2 Leicester | 2.42–1.69 | 54% · 19% · 27% | Draw against the xG: Bristol City had 54% |
| Hull City 2–0 Wrexham | 2.29–1.33 | 59% · 20% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.