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12 of 12 matches with xG: 39 goals from 31.2 xG (1.25 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City 1–4 Middlesbrough | 1.04–1.29 | 30% · 28% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Watford 3–2 Norwich | 1.28–1.88 | 26% · 23% · 51% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Derby 1–3 Leicester | 1.43–1.20 | 42% · 26% · 32% | Close call, Leicester won |
| Swansea 2–0 Oxford United | 0.89–1.41 | 24% · 27% · 49% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
| Southampton 3–1 Birmingham | 2.08–2.01 | 41% · 20% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Ipswich 3–0 Coventry | 1.45–0.67 | 56% · 27% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| QPR 3–1 West Brom | 2.00–1.48 | 50% · 22% · 29% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Sheffield Utd 4–0 Stoke City | 2.43–0.27 | 85% · 12% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Preston 1–1 Wrexham | 1.43–1.40 | 38% · 25% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bristol City 0–1 Millwall | 1.44–0.97 | 48% · 27% · 25% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Blackburn 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.90–0.34 | 48% · 38% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Charlton 1–3 Portsmouth | 0.80–1.14 | 26% · 31% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.