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12 of 12 matches with xG: 43 goals from 30.9 xG (1.39 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United 2–1 Ipswich | 1.24–1.70 | 28% · 24% · 48% | Won against the xG: Oxford United |
| Portsmouth 0–1 Bristol City | 1.47–1.60 | 35% · 24% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Leicester 2–3 Sheffield Utd | 0.98–0.97 | 35% · 31% · 34% | Close call, Sheffield Utd won |
| Stoke City 1–2 Hull City | 0.80–1.18 | 25% · 30% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Norwich 3–1 QPR | 1.31–1.02 | 43% · 28% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Wrexham 1–1 Blackburn | 1.65–0.94 | 54% · 25% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Wrexham had 54% |
| Millwall 3–2 Southampton | 1.83–1.20 | 52% · 23% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Coventry 3–1 Charlton | 2.43–0.66 | 76% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Middlesbrough 2–1 Derby | 1.53–0.92 | 52% · 26% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| West Brom 3–2 Swansea | 1.73–0.21 | 76% · 20% · 4% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–3 Preston | 2.33–0.94 | 68% · 18% · 14% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Birmingham 2–1 Watford | 1.26–1.03 | 42% · 28% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.