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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 26.6 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City 3–0 Charlton | 0.72–0.18 | 45% · 46% · 9% | Close call, Stoke City won |
| Hull City 0–2 Ipswich | 0.50–2.32 | 6% · 15% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Watford 1–1 Preston | 1.70–0.98 | 54% · 24% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 54% |
| Middlesbrough 2–4 Coventry | 1.05–1.40 | 28% · 27% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Swansea 1–2 Derby | 0.63–1.05 | 22% · 33% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Norwich 1–1 Oxford United | 1.42–0.82 | 51% · 27% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Norwich had 51% |
| Southampton 3–0 Leicester | 2.41–0.44 | 81% · 14% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Sheffield Utd 3–0 Portsmouth | 2.29–0.08 | 88% · 11% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Millwall 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.45–0.70 | 76% · 15% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Blackburn 0–1 QPR | 0.86–0.92 | 32% · 33% · 35% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Wrexham 2–0 Bristol City | 0.99–0.90 | 36% · 32% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| West Brom 1–1 Birmingham | 0.86–0.98 | 31% · 32% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.