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12 of 12 matches with xG: 44 goals from 36.9 xG (1.19 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston 1–2 Blackburn | 1.70–1.23 | 48% · 24% · 28% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Charlton 1–5 Southampton | 0.67–4.63 | 2% · 4% · 95% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Coventry 3–2 West Brom | 2.27–1.61 | 53% · 20% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Bristol City 3–0 Swansea | 2.03–0.94 | 63% · 21% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Ipswich 0–0 Wrexham | 1.69–0.04 | 80% · 19% · 1% | Draw against the xG: Ipswich had 80% |
| QPR 3–2 Hull City | 3.02–1.12 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Derby 2–3 Watford | 0.62–1.47 | 16% · 26% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Leicester 2–1 Stoke City | 1.49–1.37 | 40% · 25% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Oxford United 1–1 Middlesbrough | 0.53–1.06 | 18% · 34% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Birmingham 4–1 Norwich | 3.56–1.28 | 79% · 11% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Portsmouth 3–1 Millwall | 1.59–0.44 | 66% · 24% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–3 Sheffield Utd | 0.29–2.27 | 4% · 14% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.