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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 27.4 xG (1.17 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford 1–1 Bristol City | 1.39–0.77 | 52% · 28% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 52% |
| Millwall 1–1 Preston | 1.82–0.68 | 65% · 22% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Millwall had 65% |
| Blackburn 1–2 Derby | 1.09–0.95 | 38% · 30% · 31% | Close call, Derby won |
| Hull City 3–2 Portsmouth | 2.36–1.29 | 61% · 19% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Sheffield Utd 0–0 QPR | 1.41–0.65 | 55% · 27% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Utd had 55% |
| Norwich 1–2 Leicester | 0.30–1.59 | 7% · 23% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Wrexham 1–0 Charlton | 2.46–0.81 | 74% · 16% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| Stoke City 0–1 Coventry | 0.85–0.97 | 30% · 33% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Middlesbrough 2–1 Birmingham | 0.61–1.20 | 19% · 31% · 50% | Won against the xG: Middlesbrough |
| Swansea 1–4 Ipswich | 0.43–1.37 | 12% · 28% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| West Brom 2–1 Oxford United | 1.61–0.95 | 53% · 25% · 22% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Southampton 3–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.03–0.81 | 40% · 32% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.