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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 30.5 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester 1–1 Middlesbrough | 1.40–1.19 | 42% · 26% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oxford United 0–3 Stoke City | 1.78–2.19 | 32% · 20% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Birmingham 4–0 Millwall | 1.90–0.12 | 82% · 16% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn | 0.52–1.66 | 11% · 23% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Derby 2–1 Hull City | 0.94–1.25 | 28% · 29% · 43% | Won against the xG: Derby |
| Charlton 1–0 West Brom | 1.13–1.29 | 32% · 27% · 40% | Close call, Charlton won |
| Ipswich 1–1 Watford | 1.94–0.34 | 76% · 18% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Ipswich had 76% |
| Coventry 3–1 Sheffield Utd | 1.96–0.92 | 62% · 21% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Norwich | 2.30–1.77 | 50% · 20% · 30% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday had 50% |
| QPR 1–2 Southampton | 1.65–0.68 | 61% · 24% · 15% | Won against the xG: Southampton |
| Preston 2–1 Swansea | 0.71–0.69 | 31% · 38% · 30% | Close call, Preston won |
| Portsmouth 0–0 Wrexham | 1.49–0.73 | 55% · 26% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Portsmouth had 55% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.