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12 of 12 matches with xG: 39 goals from 34.5 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham 3–2 Coventry | 1.41–1.56 | 35% · 24% · 41% | Close call, Wrexham won |
| West Brom 0–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.16–0.33 | 57% · 32% · 11% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 57% |
| Norwich 0–2 Hull City | 2.90–1.72 | 62% · 17% · 21% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| Leicester 0–2 Blackburn | 1.24–1.91 | 25% · 22% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Southampton 0–2 Preston | 0.53–2.24 | 7% · 16% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Charlton 1–1 Swansea | 0.93–0.71 | 39% · 34% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 1–4 Ipswich | 1.56–1.03 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Won against the xG: Ipswich |
| Stoke City 5–1 Bristol City | 2.01–1.02 | 60% · 21% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Watford 3–0 Middlesbrough | 0.76–0.79 | 31% · 36% · 33% | Close call, Watford won |
| Sheffield Utd 1–3 Derby | 2.16–2.15 | 40% · 20% · 40% | Close call, Derby won |
| Birmingham 4–0 Portsmouth | 3.11–0.23 | 92% · 7% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Oxford United 2–2 Millwall | 0.63–2.42 | 8% · 15% · 77% | Draw against the xG: Millwall had 77% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.