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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 31.6 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston 3–2 Sheffield Utd | 1.57–2.37 | 25% · 19% · 55% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Coventry 3–1 Watford | 1.31–2.61 | 17% · 17% · 65% | Won against the xG: Coventry |
| Portsmouth 0–1 Stoke City | 1.83–0.90 | 59% · 23% · 18% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Ipswich 1–0 West Brom | 2.22–0.39 | 80% · 15% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Millwall 1–0 Leicester | 1.51–0.76 | 55% · 26% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Bristol City 1–0 Birmingham | 0.27–0.69 | 13% · 46% · 41% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Hull City 1–1 Charlton | 1.11–1.95 | 21% · 22% · 57% | Draw against the xG: Charlton had 57% |
| Middlesbrough 1–1 Wrexham | 0.77–0.68 | 34% · 37% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackburn 2–1 Southampton | 3.20–1.67 | 68% · 15% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Derby 1–0 QPR | 1.67–0.38 | 70% · 22% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Oxford United | 1.16–0.99 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Close call, Oxford United won |
| Swansea 2–1 Norwich | 0.43–1.17 | 14% · 32% · 55% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.