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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 28.9 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall 2–0 Stoke City | 1.48–0.44 | 63% · 26% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Portsmouth 1–2 Coventry | 0.63–2.41 | 8% · 15% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Preston 0–1 Birmingham | 1.34–0.83 | 49% · 28% · 23% | Won against the xG: Birmingham |
| Derby 1–0 Norwich | 0.95–1.11 | 31% · 30% · 39% | Close call, Derby won |
| Blackburn 1–3 Sheffield Utd | 0.79–1.13 | 26% · 31% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Hull City 2–1 Leicester | 1.52–1.48 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Ipswich 0–3 Charlton | 2.19–1.43 | 55% · 20% · 25% | Won against the xG: Charlton |
| Bristol City 3–1 Southampton | 1.63–2.18 | 29% · 21% · 50% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Swansea 0–1 QPR | 0.44–2.24 | 6% · 15% · 79% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Watford 2–1 West Brom | 0.86–0.63 | 38% · 37% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Wrexham 1–0 Oxford United | 0.77–0.15 | 49% · 45% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Middlesbrough | 0.70–1.57 | 17% · 25% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.