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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 34.4 xG (0.73 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough 2–1 Ipswich | 1.86–1.97 | 37% · 21% · 42% | Close call, Middlesbrough won |
| Southampton 0–0 Swansea | 3.10–0.20 | 93% · 6% · 1% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 93% |
| QPR 1–2 Millwall | 1.87–1.64 | 44% · 22% · 34% | Close call, Millwall won |
| Oxford United 1–0 Derby | 2.17–0.25 | 82% · 14% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Charlton 2–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.56–1.64 | 37% · 23% · 40% | Close call, Charlton won |
| West Brom 2–1 Preston | 1.30–1.39 | 35% · 26% · 39% | Close call, West Brom won |
| Stoke City 1–0 Wrexham | 0.61–0.59 | 30% · 42% · 28% | Close call, Stoke City won |
| Norwich 0–1 Bristol City | 0.58–2.06 | 9% · 19% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Birmingham 2–3 Hull City | 2.85–1.15 | 72% · 15% · 13% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| Sheffield Utd 1–0 Watford | 2.11–1.09 | 61% · 20% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Coventry 2–0 Blackburn | 0.88–1.14 | 28% · 30% · 42% | Close call, Coventry won |
| Leicester 1–1 Portsmouth | 1.53–0.87 | 53% · 26% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 53% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.