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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 33.7 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham 1–1 Birmingham | 1.74–1.36 | 46% · 23% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackburn 1–1 Stoke City | 1.88–0.81 | 63% · 22% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Blackburn had 63% |
| Hull City 1–0 Sheffield Utd | 0.45–2.52 | 5% · 13% · 82% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–5 Coventry | 1.05–4.94 | 3% · 5% · 93% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Millwall 3–0 West Brom | 0.77–0.42 | 41% · 41% · 18% | Close call, Millwall won |
| Portsmouth 1–0 Middlesbrough | 0.48–1.00 | 17% · 35% · 48% | Won against the xG: Portsmouth |
| Preston 2–0 Charlton | 1.81–0.54 | 68% · 21% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Bristol City 1–2 QPR | 1.21–0.48 | 54% · 31% · 15% | Won against the xG: QPR |
| Derby 1–1 Southampton | 1.36–1.06 | 44% · 27% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Watford 2–1 Oxford United | 2.65–1.38 | 65% · 17% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Swansea 1–3 Leicester | 1.84–1.65 | 43% · 22% · 35% | Close call, Leicester won |
| Ipswich 3–1 Norwich | 1.80–0.46 | 70% · 21% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.