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12 of 12 matches with xG: 29 goals from 29.6 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester 1–1 Wrexham | 1.07–0.91 | 39% · 31% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Utd 1–2 Southampton | 0.90–2.02 | 16% · 21% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Birmingham 2–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.33–0.42 | 60% · 29% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Birmingham had 60% |
| Bristol City 1–1 Ipswich | 1.38–1.38 | 37% · 25% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hull City 2–2 Preston | 1.82–1.43 | 47% · 23% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 0–0 Stoke City | 0.61–1.20 | 19% · 31% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Stoke City had 50% |
| Blackburn 1–2 Swansea | 0.61–0.46 | 33% · 45% · 23% | Close call, Swansea won |
| Derby 1–1 Charlton | 1.81–0.60 | 67% · 22% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Derby had 67% |
| Norwich 0–1 West Brom | 1.62–0.96 | 53% · 25% · 22% | Won against the xG: West Brom |
| Portsmouth 2–2 Watford | 1.12–1.88 | 22% · 22% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 55% |
| Millwall 0–4 Coventry | 1.33–3.60 | 10% · 11% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| QPR 0–0 Oxford United | 0.77–0.37 | 42% · 42% · 16% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.