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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 29.0 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom 1–1 Leicester | 1.64–0.94 | 54% · 25% · 22% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 54% |
| Swansea 1–1 Millwall | 1.34–0.88 | 47% · 28% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Coventry 3–0 Birmingham | 2.13–0.19 | 83% · 14% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Wrexham 1–1 Derby | 0.89–0.64 | 39% · 36% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stoke City 1–1 Norwich | 1.85–1.32 | 50% · 23% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Watford 2–1 Hull City | 2.82–0.86 | 78% · 14% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Southampton 1–1 Middlesbrough | 0.85–0.29 | 48% · 40% · 12% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ipswich 2–1 Portsmouth | 1.53–0.89 | 52% · 26% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Charlton 3–0 Blackburn | 1.47–0.55 | 60% · 26% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Charlton |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 QPR | 1.41–2.17 | 25% · 21% · 55% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 55% |
| Preston 0–0 Bristol City | 0.42–2.32 | 5% · 14% · 80% | Draw against the xG: Bristol City had 80% |
| Oxford United 0–1 Sheffield Utd | 1.14–0.48 | 52% · 32% · 16% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Utd |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.