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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 28.3 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough 2–1 West Brom | 0.96–0.89 | 36% · 32% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Leicester 0–0 Coventry | 1.22–0.41 | 57% · 31% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 57% |
| Birmingham 1–0 Swansea | 2.41–1.43 | 59% · 19% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| QPR 1–0 Stoke City | 1.33–1.09 | 42% · 27% · 31% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Sheffield Utd 0–1 Charlton | 0.60–0.77 | 26% · 39% · 36% | Close call, Charlton won |
| Portsmouth 0–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.74–1.07 | 53% · 24% · 23% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday |
| Norwich 2–3 Wrexham | 2.34–1.30 | 61% · 19% · 20% | Won against the xG: Wrexham |
| Hull City 3–1 Southampton | 2.13–1.07 | 62% · 20% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Derby 0–1 Preston | 0.34–0.90 | 13% · 38% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Bristol City 1–3 Oxford United | 1.18–1.72 | 26% · 24% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Millwall 1–0 Watford | 0.70–0.76 | 30% · 37% · 33% | Close call, Millwall won |
| Blackburn 1–1 Ipswich | 1.40–0.51 | 59% · 27% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Blackburn had 59% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.