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12 of 12 matches with xG: 31 goals from 28.7 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich 5–0 Sheffield Utd | 2.33–0.42 | 81% · 14% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Charlton 1–1 Millwall | 0.73–1.03 | 25% · 33% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Preston 2–2 Middlesbrough | 0.75–1.52 | 18% · 26% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 56% |
| Oxford United 2–2 Leicester | 2.10–0.84 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Oxford United had 66% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–3 Bristol City | 0.83–1.39 | 22% · 28% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Swansea 2–2 Hull City | 1.00–1.61 | 24% · 25% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Hull City had 52% |
| West Brom 0–1 Derby | 1.15–0.32 | 57% · 32% · 10% | Won against the xG: Derby |
| Stoke City 1–0 Birmingham | 0.49–0.52 | 26% · 46% · 28% | Close call, Stoke City won |
| Watford 0–1 Blackburn | 0.75–1.45 | 19% · 27% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Coventry 1–1 Norwich | 3.68–0.18 | 96% · 4% · 1% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 96% |
| Wrexham 1–3 QPR | 2.02–1.43 | 51% · 22% · 27% | Won against the xG: QPR |
| Southampton 0–0 Portsmouth | 1.18–0.94 | 41% · 29% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.