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12 of 12 matches with xG: 33 goals from 33.1 xG (1.00 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester 2–0 Birmingham | 0.56–0.83 | 23% · 38% · 39% | Won against the xG: Leicester |
| QPR 3–1 Charlton | 1.43–0.84 | 51% · 27% · 22% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Stoke City 0–1 West Brom | 0.95–0.66 | 41% · 35% · 24% | Won against the xG: West Brom |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Sheffield Utd | 1.09–0.44 | 52% · 33% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Millwall 0–2 Wrexham | 1.76–0.55 | 67% · 22% · 11% | Won against the xG: Wrexham |
| Oxford United 2–2 Coventry | 1.04–1.74 | 23% · 24% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 54% |
| Portsmouth 1–0 Preston | 1.58–1.01 | 51% · 25% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Bristol City 4–2 Hull City | 3.49–2.60 | 56% · 16% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Blackburn 0–2 Norwich | 1.92–2.09 | 36% · 21% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Watford 2–2 Southampton | 0.55–1.81 | 11% · 21% · 68% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 68% |
| Ipswich 2–2 Derby | 2.91–1.48 | 67% · 16% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Ipswich had 67% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Swansea | 0.45–1.31 | 13% · 29% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.