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12 of 12 matches with xG: 31 goals from 29.1 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby 1–1 Bristol City | 0.47–0.76 | 21% · 41% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Swansea 1–1 Watford | 0.68–0.41 | 37% · 44% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
| Charlton 0–1 Leicester | 1.63–0.49 | 66% · 24% · 11% | Won against the xG: Leicester |
| Hull City 0–3 Blackburn | 0.52–3.03 | 4% · 10% · 87% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| West Brom 1–1 Portsmouth | 0.59–0.94 | 22% · 35% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Southampton 1–2 Stoke City | 2.59–1.50 | 61% · 18% · 21% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Preston 1–0 Ipswich | 0.84–1.39 | 23% · 27% · 50% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Sheffield Utd 0–1 Millwall | 1.30–1.40 | 35% · 26% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Norwich 1–2 Middlesbrough | 1.18–1.51 | 30% · 25% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Birmingham 1–0 Oxford United | 1.65–0.38 | 69% · 23% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Wrexham 2–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.30–2.67 | 17% · 17% · 67% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday had 67% |
| Coventry 7–1 QPR | 1.27–0.61 | 53% · 30% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.