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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 26.3 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich 2–0 Bristol City | 1.08–0.71 | 44% · 32% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| West Brom 0–5 Norwich | 1.34–0.83 | 49% · 28% · 23% | Won against the xG: Norwich |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Birmingham | 0.37–2.76 | 3% · 10% · 87% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Swansea 3–1 Blackburn | 0.87–1.03 | 30% · 32% · 38% | Close call, Swansea won |
| Preston 0–3 Hull City | 0.95–1.56 | 23% · 25% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Coventry 2–1 Millwall | 2.69–1.17 | 70% · 16% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Oxford United 0–0 QPR | 0.79–0.63 | 36% · 38% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Charlton 1–2 Derby | 0.89–1.71 | 19% · 24% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Wrexham 1–1 Leicester | 1.08–0.52 | 49% · 33% · 18% | Draw in line with xG |
| Southampton 1–0 Sheffield Utd | 0.82–1.06 | 28% · 32% · 41% | Close call, Southampton won |
| Watford 1–1 Portsmouth | 0.80–0.64 | 36% · 37% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stoke City 1–2 Middlesbrough | 0.81–1.22 | 25% · 30% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.