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12 of 12 matches with xG: 36 goals from 33.8 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby 1–1 West Brom | 0.33–1.19 | 10% · 31% · 58% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 58% |
| Middlesbrough 4–0 Preston | 2.72–0.40 | 86% · 11% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Millwall 4–0 Charlton | 3.97–0.14 | 97% · 3% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Blackburn 1–1 Watford | 0.89–1.43 | 23% · 27% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 2–3 Wrexham | 0.90–0.48 | 44% · 37% · 19% | Won against the xG: Wrexham |
| Hull City 2–1 Swansea | 1.80–1.98 | 36% · 21% · 43% | Close call, Hull City won |
| Leicester 1–2 Oxford United | 0.73–1.90 | 14% · 21% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Sheffield Utd 3–1 Ipswich | 1.59–1.97 | 31% · 22% · 47% | Close call, Sheffield Utd won |
| Birmingham 1–1 Stoke City | 2.03–0.36 | 77% · 17% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Birmingham had 77% |
| Bristol City 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.56–0.71 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Portsmouth 1–1 Southampton | 1.66–1.18 | 49% · 24% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Norwich 2–1 Coventry | 1.25–1.67 | 29% · 24% · 47% | Won against the xG: Norwich |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.