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12 of 12 matches with xG: 26 goals from 29.8 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 0–5 Derby | 0.23–2.00 | 3% · 16% · 80% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Leicester 0–2 Charlton | 1.92–1.40 | 50% · 22% · 28% | Won against the xG: Charlton |
| Stoke City 0–2 Southampton | 0.87–1.90 | 17% · 22% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Wrexham | 0.45–1.76 | 9% · 22% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| Portsmouth 3–0 West Brom | 2.57–0.09 | 91% · 9% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Millwall 1–1 Sheffield Utd | 1.44–1.22 | 42% · 26% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oxford United 0–2 Birmingham | 0.47–1.14 | 15% · 32% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Norwich | 0.50–0.53 | 26% · 46% · 28% | Close call, Middlesbrough won |
| Watford 0–2 Swansea | 0.91–2.64 | 11% · 15% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| QPR 2–1 Coventry | 1.13–0.59 | 49% · 32% · 19% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Blackburn 0–1 Hull City | 0.50–1.54 | 12% · 25% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Ipswich 1–1 Preston | 2.79–1.19 | 71% · 16% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Ipswich had 71% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.