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12 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 24.4 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton 0–0 QPR | 1.11–0.71 | 45% · 32% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| Southampton 1–0 Watford | 0.87–0.68 | 38% · 36% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Derby 1–2 Ipswich | 1.08–1.51 | 27% · 26% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Norwich 2–0 Blackburn | 1.50–0.26 | 69% · 25% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| West Brom 0–0 Stoke City | 0.38–0.39 | 23% · 53% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hull City 2–3 Bristol City | 1.23–1.94 | 24% · 22% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Wrexham 0–2 Millwall | 1.41–0.64 | 56% · 27% · 17% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Coventry 0–0 Oxford United | 2.29–0.12 | 87% · 12% · 1% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 87% |
| Preston 1–0 Portsmouth | 0.57–1.20 | 18% · 31% · 52% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Birmingham 2–1 Leicester | 1.44–0.30 | 67% · 26% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Swansea 4–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.34–0.06 | 89% · 10% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Sheffield Utd 1–2 Middlesbrough | 0.88–1.44 | 23% · 27% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.