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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 31.0 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United 0–3 Norwich | 0.44–2.31 | 5% · 15% · 80% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Leicester 3–4 Southampton | 0.65–2.04 | 11% · 19% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Birmingham 0–0 West Brom | 1.26–0.41 | 58% · 30% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Birmingham had 58% |
| Charlton 1–0 Stoke City | 2.31–0.50 | 78% · 15% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Charlton |
| Preston 2–2 Watford | 0.82–0.85 | 32% · 34% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Portsmouth 0–1 Sheffield Utd | 2.37–1.46 | 58% · 19% · 23% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Utd |
| Derby 2–0 Swansea | 0.80–1.00 | 28% · 33% · 39% | Close call, Derby won |
| QPR 1–3 Blackburn | 2.03–1.48 | 50% · 21% · 28% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Millwall | 1.03–3.04 | 10% · 13% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Coventry 3–1 Middlesbrough | 1.79–1.17 | 52% · 23% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Bristol City 2–2 Wrexham | 0.38–1.07 | 13% · 34% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Wrexham had 53% |
| Ipswich 1–0 Hull City | 1.47–0.28 | 68% · 25% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.