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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 29.0 xG (1.17 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 1–0 Preston | 1.06–0.12 | 61% · 35% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| West Brom 0–2 Coventry | 0.71–1.19 | 22% · 31% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Stoke City 2–2 Leicester | 1.77–1.66 | 41% · 22% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hull City 1–3 QPR | 2.11–1.73 | 47% · 21% · 32% | Close call, QPR won |
| Swansea 1–0 Bristol City | 0.62–0.75 | 27% · 39% · 35% | Close call, Swansea won |
| Southampton 1–1 Charlton | 1.24–0.85 | 45% · 29% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Watford 2–0 Derby | 1.30–0.54 | 55% · 29% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Middlesbrough 0–0 Oxford United | 2.33–0.82 | 71% · 17% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 71% |
| Millwall 1–3 Portsmouth | 0.42–1.52 | 10% · 25% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Wrexham 5–3 Ipswich | 2.42–0.95 | 70% · 17% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| Norwich 1–2 Birmingham | 1.68–1.36 | 45% · 24% · 31% | Close call, Birmingham won |
| Sheffield Utd 2–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.68–0.16 | 76% · 20% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.