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12 of 12 matches with xG: 36 goals from 29.2 xG (1.23 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea 1–1 Preston | 1.55–1.77 | 34% · 23% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wrexham 2–1 Portsmouth | 0.54–0.53 | 28% · 45% · 27% | Close call, Wrexham won |
| Middlesbrough 1–1 Leicester | 1.19–0.89 | 43% · 30% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Watford 0–2 Ipswich | 1.68–1.12 | 50% · 24% · 25% | Won against the xG: Ipswich |
| Hull City 4–2 Derby | 0.58–3.38 | 3% · 8% · 89% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| West Brom 1–1 Charlton | 1.96–0.30 | 78% · 18% · 5% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 78% |
| Blackburn 1–2 Bristol City | 2.20–0.78 | 70% · 18% · 12% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
| Southampton 5–0 QPR | 1.56–0.26 | 71% · 23% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Millwall 3–0 Birmingham | 1.21–0.12 | 66% · 30% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Norwich 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.83–0.49 | 70% · 21% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Sheffield Utd 1–2 Coventry | 1.68–0.64 | 63% · 24% · 14% | Won against the xG: Coventry |
| Stoke City 2–1 Oxford United | 1.51–1.46 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.