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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 25.1 xG (1.28 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 1–2 Watford | 0.89–0.99 | 31% · 32% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Portsmouth 0–1 Hull City | 1.05–0.34 | 53% · 35% · 12% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| Leicester 0–2 Norwich | 0.46–1.65 | 10% · 23% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Derby 3–1 Blackburn | 1.44–0.90 | 50% · 27% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Preston 0–2 Millwall | 0.43–2.59 | 4% · 12% · 84% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Oxford United 2–1 West Brom | 0.78–1.25 | 23% · 29% · 47% | Won against the xG: Oxford United |
| Coventry 2–1 Stoke City | 2.13–0.21 | 83% · 14% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| QPR 0–2 Sheffield Utd | 1.14–1.02 | 38% · 29% · 32% | Close call, Sheffield Utd won |
| Ipswich 3–0 Swansea | 1.18–0.42 | 55% · 32% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Charlton 0–1 Wrexham | 1.26–0.55 | 54% · 30% · 16% | Won against the xG: Wrexham |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–3 Southampton | 0.78–1.93 | 14% · 21% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Birmingham 1–3 Middlesbrough | 0.61–1.07 | 21% · 33% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.