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12 of 12 matches with xG: 31 goals from 32.2 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston 1–3 Oxford United | 0.93–1.74 | 20% · 24% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Hull City 1–3 Millwall | 3.04–1.38 | 71% · 15% · 14% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Blackburn 1–1 Portsmouth | 1.20–0.57 | 52% · 31% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Blackburn had 52% |
| Swansea 2–0 Stoke City | 1.41–1.47 | 36% · 25% · 39% | Close call, Swansea won |
| Charlton 1–0 Birmingham | 0.76–0.35 | 42% · 42% · 16% | Close call, Charlton won |
| Ipswich 1–1 Leicester | 1.85–0.18 | 79% · 18% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Ipswich had 79% |
| Derby 2–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.47–0.73 | 76% · 15% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Bristol City 0–2 Coventry | 1.91–1.50 | 47% · 22% · 30% | Close call, Coventry won |
| Sheffield Utd 1–1 West Brom | 1.22–1.01 | 41% · 29% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 0–4 Middlesbrough | 0.69–3.80 | 3% · 7% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Watford 3–1 Wrexham | 1.97–0.35 | 77% · 18% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Southampton 1–0 Norwich | 0.61–1.04 | 21% · 33% · 45% | Won against the xG: Southampton |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.