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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 34.4 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea | 0.94–0.71 | 39% · 34% · 26% | Close call, Swansea won |
| Wrexham 1–2 Hull City | 1.07–1.53 | 27% · 26% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Leicester 2–0 Bristol City | 1.26–1.06 | 41% · 28% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Millwall 1–0 Derby | 1.68–1.25 | 47% · 24% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Watford | 1.54–1.96 | 31% · 22% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stoke City 3–3 Ipswich | 3.43–1.48 | 74% · 13% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Stoke City had 74% |
| Norwich 2–1 Sheffield Utd | 1.78–0.74 | 62% · 23% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Birmingham 1–0 QPR | 1.70–0.37 | 71% · 22% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| West Brom 1–1 Southampton | 1.55–1.09 | 48% · 25% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 0–1 Charlton | 2.30–0.73 | 73% · 17% · 10% | Won against the xG: Charlton |
| Oxford United 1–0 Blackburn | 1.16–0.65 | 48% · 31% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Coventry 3–0 Preston | 4.00–0.44 | 94% · 4% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.