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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 35.9 xG (0.84 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham 2–0 Swansea | 0.94–0.84 | 36% · 33% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
| Coventry 1–2 Southampton | 2.62–1.98 | 52% · 18% · 29% | Won against the xG: Southampton |
| Oxford United 1–1 Charlton | 1.43–0.93 | 49% · 27% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 1–1 Bristol City | 2.50–0.32 | 85% · 12% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 85% |
| Millwall 1–2 Blackburn | 1.38–2.32 | 22% · 19% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Leicester 1–3 QPR | 0.35–1.65 | 7% · 23% · 70% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Birmingham 1–1 Sheffield Utd | 1.52–1.72 | 34% · 23% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Norwich 2–0 Preston | 1.05–2.32 | 16% · 19% · 66% | Won against the xG: Norwich |
| West Brom 3–0 Hull City | 2.35–0.34 | 83% · 13% · 4% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Stoke City 3–1 Watford | 1.66–1.83 | 35% · 22% · 42% | Close call, Stoke City won |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Ipswich | 0.36–2.75 | 3% · 10% · 87% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Portsmouth 0–1 Derby | 1.72–1.00 | 54% · 24% · 22% | Won against the xG: Derby |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.