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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 35.5 xG (0.79 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston 3–1 Stoke City | 2.81–0.99 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Ipswich 1–1 Millwall | 1.48–1.66 | 34% · 24% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Derby 1–0 Birmingham | 1.16–0.16 | 63% · 32% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Derby |
| Blackburn 0–0 Middlesbrough | 0.31–1.56 | 7% · 24% · 69% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 69% |
| Charlton 0–1 Norwich | 1.71–1.78 | 37% · 22% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Southampton 2–0 Oxford United | 1.84–1.10 | 55% · 23% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Watford 0–0 Leicester | 0.25–2.22 | 3% · 14% · 83% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 83% |
| Hull City 3–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.50–0.67 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| QPR 6–1 Portsmouth | 1.69–1.63 | 40% · 23% · 37% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Sheffield Utd 1–2 Wrexham | 2.48–1.28 | 64% · 18% · 18% | Won against the xG: Wrexham |
| Bristol City 0–1 West Brom | 0.15–2.42 | 1% · 11% · 88% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Swansea 0–3 Coventry | 1.44–2.20 | 25% · 20% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.